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NathanChurch
CF • Bats L • Throws R
STLvs
CHC3:15 PM ET
vs Edward Cabrera (R)
Wrigley Field
PROJECTED · BATTING #4
Bomb Score
78
HOT BOMBRank #114 today
HR probability
6.1%
Confidence
79%
Data coverage
96%
Why he's live
Environment
81
Opportunity
61
Platoon
46
- · Strong HR environment at this park today
- · ENVIRONMENT 81
- · OPPORTUNITY 61
Signals
24/25
Power
41
Collision
43
Pitch Profile
46
Home Run Swing Window
Score 39.6Launch-Angle Fit (24-33 deg)
SEASON · 243 BBE
11.8
—Sweet-Spot %
SEASON · 243 BBE
35.4%
60Barrel %
SEASON · 243 BBE
6.6%
45Hard-Hit %
SEASON · 243 BBE
31.3%
31Avg Exit Velo
SEASON · 243 BBE
84.3
14Max Exit Velo
SEASON · 243 BBE
110.1
51Pull-Air %
SEASON · 243 BBE
21.4%
65Bat path is outside the typical HR launch band.
Collision Report
Hitter strength × pitcher vulnerabilityPower
41×68=43
Barrel
45×93=45
Hard Hit
31×74=35
Pitch Match
43×64=46
Zone Match
35×59=42
Location Match
37
Pull Match
65×100=65
Fastball Match
56×73=55
Breaking Ball Match
40×60=43
Offspeed Match
31×55=38
Contact Match
14×77=21
Platoon Match
45×71=46
Statcast Profile
Measured contact qualityBarrel %
SEASON · 243 BBE
6.6%
45Hard-Hit %
SEASON · 243 BBE
31.3%
31Sweet-Spot %
SEASON · 243 BBE
35.4%
60Avg Exit Velo
SEASON · 243 BBE
84.3
14Max Exit Velo
SEASON · 243 BBE
110.1
51Launch Angle
SEASON · 243 BBE
11.8
—Fly Ball %
SEASON · 243 BBE
21.4%
25Pull %
SEASON · 243 BBE
49.4%
89Pull-Air %
SEASON · 243 BBE
21.4%
65xwOBA (contact)
SEASON · 243 BBE
.330
30xSLG (contact)
SEASON · 243 BBE
.464
56ISO
SEASON · 325 PA
.131
35SLG
SEASON · 325 PA
.369
33HR / PA
SEASON · 325 PA
2.8%
44HR / BBE
SEASON · 243 BBE
3.7%
38Opposing Pitcher Profile
Edward Cabrera (R) · vulnerability 67.8HR / BF
SEASON · 290 BF
4.8%
77HR / BBE allowed
SEASON · 200 BBE
7.0%
71Barrel % allowed
SEASON · 200 BBE
12.5%
93Hard-Hit % allowed
SEASON · 200 BBE
44.5%
74Avg EV allowed
SEASON · 200 BBE
90.9
77Max EV allowed
SEASON · 200 BBE
115.4
89Fly Ball % allowed
SEASON · 200 BBE
23.0%
31Pull-Air % allowed
SEASON · 200 BBE
29.5%
100xSLG allowed (contact)
SEASON · 200 BBE
.595
100Strikeout %
SEASON · 290 BF
20.7%
57Whiff %
SEASON · 290 BF
23.4%
55Zone %
SEASON · 290 BF
43.4%
83Historical Trends
Point-in-time windows| Window | G | HR | HR/PA | Barrel % | Hard % | LA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.5% | 23.8 |
| L10 | 10 | 1 | 2.4% | 3.0% | 21.2% | 21.8 |
| L15 | 15 | 1 | 1.7% | 4.3% | 23.9% | 22.3 |
| L30 | 30 | 1 | 1.0% | 2.5% | 26.3% | 15.7 |
| SEASON | 93 | 9 | 2.8% | 6.6% | 31.3% | 11.8 |
| CAREER | 93 | 9 | 2.8% | 6.6% | 31.3% | 11.8 |
Why He Ranks Here
Deterministic trace- +Strong HR environment at this park today
- -Underlying contact quality trending down
- -Projected lineup — not yet confirmed